Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 91.6%
Forecasters
60
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 9, 24, 3:25 PM UTCJan 16, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Will a US Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term? Only includes retirements, not deaths, impeachments, or other removals or changes (e.g. court expansion).
- Resolves NO when Donald Trump’s second term ends, and N/A if he never begins a second term.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term? resolve?
- Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term? is scheduled to resolve on January 16, 2029.
- How is Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will a US Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term? Only includes retirements, not deaths, impeachments, or other removals or changes (e.g. court expansion).