If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 15, 2026, 6:47 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 74.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 7, 26, 2:54 AM UTCJan 3, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
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Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Supreme Court justice?
KalshiWill a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats win the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Republicans win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExRules
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if any justice of the U.S. Supreme Court retires, resigns, dies or otherwise leaves the Court between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive).
- A retirement counts when it takes effect; an announced retirement that has not taken effect by January 3, 2029 does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.
