If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 15, 2026, 5:31 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 89.4%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:05 AM UTCJan 3, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate votes to confirm a nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive), for any seat including Chief Justice.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.
