Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSamuel Alito 63.9%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
71
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 22, 6:56 PM UTCAug 13, 30, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next??
- Manifold Markets prices Samuel Alito at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next? resolve?
- Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next? is scheduled to resolve on August 13, 2030.
- How is Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.