Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 86.6% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026? resolve?

Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.

How is Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Death of a Justice will count as a qualifying event for YES resolution (does not require a replacement to be confirmed).

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change-1.0pt95%
• 25 bps increase5%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$67.1M

24h Vol

$4.1M

POLYMARKET

Which party will win the House in 2026?

• Democratic Party91.1%
• Republican Party8.9%

Total Vol

$23.5M

24h Vol

$2.2M

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. House?

• Democratic Party-0.4pt90.2%
• Republican Party+0.4pt9.8%

Total Vol

$71.6M

24h Vol

$1.8M

POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 24+0.3pt100%
• October 28+3.0pt94%
• October 31+1.0pt85%

+17 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

• Gadi Eizenkot+1.6pt56.8%
• Benjamin Netanyahu-2.0pt27.4%
• Naftali Bennett13.7%

+16 more outcomes

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep-1.0pt63.5%
• D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt26.5%
• Republicans sweep

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