Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsLatin America2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 93%
No 93%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$952.8
Low liquidityTraders
9
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market predicts whether Alexandre de Moraes will cease to serve as a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal, STF) at any time between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
- A justice may leave the court due to resignation, retirement, death, removal through impeachment by the Brazilian Senate, or any other legally recognized termination of the appointment.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official publications and announcements from the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), the Brazilian Federal Senate, or Brazil’s official government gazette (Diário Oficial da União).
- If Alexandre de Moraes permanently ceases to hold the position of Justice of the STF at any time during 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary absences, medical leave, suspension of duties, or recusal from cases will not qualify if he retains the office.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice in 2026? · No 93%
- Also available on Polymarket — Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? · No 79%
- Also available on Kalshi — Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court? · Before Jan 1, 2028 75%
