Will Brazil's Senate open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes?
InflationOne-OffPoliticsLatin America2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Mar 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Mar 1, 2027 60%
Before Mar 1, 2027 60%Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$41.4
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Before Mar 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 12, 26, 5:50 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Mar 1, 2027
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Rules
If the Brazilian Senate votes to open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBC
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The Brazilian Senate opens impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes when its plenary votes to approve, as admissible, an impeachment complaint (denúncia por crime de responsabilidade) against him. The Senate's officially announced result controls, whatever vote threshold it applies; a later court decision suspending or annulling an approved vote does not change the outcome. The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: The Senate President receiving, reading, accepting or forwarding a complaint, or declining to act on one A vote or report by a Senate committee or special committee without plenary approval A plenary vote that rejects the complaint or archives it A vote in the Chamber of Deputies, a parliamentary inquiry (CPI), or an investigation or proceeding at the Supreme Federal Court
Rules for each outcome
- Before Mar 1, 2027
- If the Brazilian Senate votes to open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the Brazilian Senate votes to open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
