Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.6%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Mar 12, 26, 12:48 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?
KalshiWill Brazil's Senate open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes?
KalshiDias Toffoli out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice by ?
FutuurImpeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026?
FutuurBrazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026?
FutuurBrazil Supreme Court decisions still behind captcha by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to serve as a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) for any period of time between the market creation date and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, it resolves to “No.”
- If Alexandre de Moraes’s resignation, removal, suspension, or any other departure from the Court is officially announced before the market end date, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of when that change takes effect.
- Resolution will be based primarily on official statements or records from Alexandre de Moraes and the Brazilian government.
- In the absence of clear official confirmation, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? · No 79%
- Also available on Kalshi — Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court? · Before Jan 1, 2028 75%
- Also available on Futuur — Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice in 2026? · No 93%
