Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked against Donald Trump by his VP and cabinet during his second term?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 92.2%
No 92.2%Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 24, 8:14 PM UTCJan 22, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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Rules
This question resolves YES if Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is invoked against President Trump by his Vice President and a majority of his cabinet (or other body as Congress may designate, per the Amendment) before the end of Donald Trump's second term on 20 Jan 2029.
- Section 4 of the 25th Amendment allows the Vice President and a majority of a president's cabinet to declare that the president is unable to perform his duties, and thereby transfer presidential powers to the Vice President.
- This question resolves NO on 21 Jan 2029 if Section 4 of the 25th Amendment has not been invoked against President Donald Trump before then.
- This question may resolve NO early if Donald Trump ceases to be president for other reasons and therefore cannot have Section 4 of the 25th Amendment used against him (e.g. death, resignation, removal via impeachment).
