Will there be a coup attempt that kills more than 100 people in any rich democracy before April 2123?

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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

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Yes 88.9%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Forecast

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Updated 18 hours ago

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Apr 7, 23, 11:16 PM UTCApr 1, 23, 7:00 AM UTC

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See this Twitter thread for context: https://twitter.com/NathanB60857242/status/1644468251596914689

Coups can have destabilizing effects on nations, leading to loss of life, political turmoil, and economic consequences.
In this question, we aim to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in a rich democracy, leading to the deaths of over one hundred people, within the next century.
Will there be a coup attempt in a rich democracy, resulting in the death of more than one hundred people, before April 1st, 2123?
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