Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department 100%Leader of 36 outcomes
Forecasters
95
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 3:31 AM UTCJan 22, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsHow many times will the Fed raise rates during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiWill Trump be impeached in his second term?
FutuurRules
Criteria for the answers I have added.
- I may interpret answers others have added and write my interpretations here as well:
- the named outcome: Will resolve yes if the named outcome happen in Trump's second term.
- None of the actions from Trump's first term would count for this market.
- the named outcome: Will resolve yes if, at any point during Trump's term, the Supreme Court has more than nine justices.
- Temporary appointments will count as a justice for the purposes of this market.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will happen during Trump's second term??
- Manifold Markets prices RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will happen during Trump's second term? resolve?
- What will happen during Trump's second term? is scheduled to resolve on January 22, 2029.
- How is What will happen during Trump's second term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Criteria for the answers I have added.