PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 96%-0.0pt
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$501.5
Liquidity
$48.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.6% / 4.6%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 4:25 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes4%
Volume trend
$501Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership.
- Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
- Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt.
- Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.