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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. China coup attempt before 2027?
China coup attempt before 2027?

China coup attempt before 2027?

1.1% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsChina6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 3%-0.0%
Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$1.8K

Liquidity

$42K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.9% / 3.4%

Spread

17.2%

Wide spread
7d Change

+0.3%

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Nov 13, 25, 4:26 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes3%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership.
  • Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
  • Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt.
  • Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership.
  • Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
  • Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt.
  • Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.