PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%+0.5pt
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4K
Liquidity
$91.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.1% / 4.9%
Spread
0.8 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 11:10 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump nuke Iran before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+2.0pt76%
- September 18+3.0pt72%
- September 11+6.0pt68%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $655.1K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+0.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt83.2%
- Yes-3.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
- 24h Vol
- $292.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt50.4%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-5.0pt29%
- Before Jan 1, 202826%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran Nuke before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 95% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Iran Nuke before 2027? resolve?
- Iran Nuke before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Iran Nuke before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.