PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 5%
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$100.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.1% / 5.3%
Spread
3.9%
Moderate spread7d Change
-0.1%
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 11:10 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Volume trend
$1.2kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".