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Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

One-OffGeopolitics Middle East5mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jun 4, 2026, 2:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

Yes 1.2%

Forecasters

27

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 52 days ago

Stale

Mar 22, 26, 1:12 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes1%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.

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Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.