Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleMar 22, 26, 1:12 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
- The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
- Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
- Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026? resolve?
- Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria