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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Yes 1.2%
Forecasters

27

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 days ago

Stale
Mar 22, 26, 1:12 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes1%

Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
  • Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
  • The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
  • Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
  • Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.

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Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
  • Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
  • The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
  • Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
  • Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.