PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAugust 31 52%+2.0%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$230.3K
Liquidity
$243.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 15.0%
Spread
7.1%
Moderate spread7d Change
-8.0%
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 15, 26, 7:54 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
August 3152%
Large trades
$2.2k96.0%POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — NoParz1vaI2d ago
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — NoParz1vaI2d ago$1.8k60.0%POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? — NoDitto3212d ago
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? — NoDitto3212d ago$2.3k63.0%POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? — NoMEPP2d ago
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? — NoMEPP2d ago$4.5k92.0%POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — NoMEPP2d ago
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — NoMEPP2d ago$3.9k90.0%POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — Nopaddaa4d ago
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — Nopaddaa4d ago$1.6k87.6%POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — Nozthunderfury4d ago
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — Nozthunderfury4d ago$1.5k47.0%POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? — NoDitto3214d ago
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? — NoDitto3214d ago$1.3k46.0%POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? — NoMEPP4d ago
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? — NoMEPP4d agoVolume trend
$230.3kJul 1510d of dataJul 24
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred).
- The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day.
- This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.