Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.9%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 26, 11:07 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 12:04 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear bomb and then nukes Israel.
- Both a nuclear first strike and a response to Israeli nuclear weapons use count as yes.
- Resolves N/A if Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel? resolve?
- Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear bomb and then nukes Israel.