Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingMar 20, 26, 11:07 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 12:04 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear bomb and then nukes Israel.
- Both a nuclear first strike and a response to Israeli nuclear weapons use count as yes.
- Resolves N/A if Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.