Will Russian dissenters face refoulement from the US or a EU country if said country is Russia's ally? [SEE DESCRIPTION]
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.5%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Feb 14, 24, 6:27 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 7:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
If the US or a EU country becomes an economic and military ally with Russia before EOY 2050 and Russia is still not democratic, will Russian dissenters in that country face increased and significant refoulement, i. e. be extradited to Russia where they are likely to face oppression?
- If the condition is not met (that is: EITHER no such country becomes Russia's ally, OR Russia becomes democratic before that happens), this market resolves N/A. It also resolves N/A if Russia doesn't exist by EOY 2050.
- If the condition is met, the market resolves YES if a significant number of Russian dissenters are extradited to Russia where they will face oppression, and NO otherwise.
- I will use Wikipedia, Western media, and my best judgement to determine if a country is Russia's economic and military ally, if Russia is democratic, and if Russian dissenters face refoulement.
- The reason I'm creating this market is because I came across a claim along the lines of "if a significant political need arises and Western democratic countries have to befriend Russia, they will extradite Russian dissenters to please their ally." So I wanted to turn it into a prediction market, to turn it into a falsifiable prediction.
- See also Operation Keelhaul:
