Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.4%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 1:30 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Trump's rhetoric has had many commentators wondering if use of nuclear weapons is in the cards:
- [image]Any use of nuclear weapons in Iran by the US military while Trump is president will result in this market being resolved as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027? resolve?
- Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Trump's rhetoric has had many commentators wondering if use of nuclear weapons is in the cards: