Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.5%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Apr 7, 26, 1:30 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran Nuke before 2027?
PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsWill America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Tucker Carlson be arrested in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Trump's rhetoric has had many commentators wondering if use of nuclear weapons is in the cards:
- [image]Any use of nuclear weapons in Iran by the US military while Trump is president will result in this market being resolved as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
