Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsMiddle East3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 26, 3:21 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Congress formally declares war on Iran through a joint resolution, as specified in Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution.
- Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war since World War II, instead relying on authorizations for use of military force (AUMFs).
- For this market, only a formal declaration of war legislation explicitly using the phrase "declaration of war" counts as YES.
- An AUMF or military action without a formal declaration resolves NO.
- The market resolves by December 31,
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026 resolve?
- Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria