Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsMiddle East2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 69%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleMar 7, 26, 3:21 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Congress formally declares war on Iran through a joint resolution, as specified in Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution.
- Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war since World War II, instead relying on authorizations for use of military force (AUMFs).
- For this market, only a formal declaration of war legislation explicitly using the phrase "declaration of war" counts as YES.
- An AUMF or military action without a formal declaration resolves NO.
- The market resolves by December 31,
