Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 49.6%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 3, 23, 8:29 AM UTCAug 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill the congress of the U.S.A officially declare war on another country before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Charles III declare war during his reign ?
Manifold MarketsBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Not limited to formal declarations of war.
- Resolves yes if there's a congressional authorization of military force à la Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-3.5pt23%
- October 31-5.0pt16%
- September 30-4.5pt6%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.6M
- 24h Vol
- $611.3K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt79.2%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt16.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- October 31-1.0pt57%
- September 30+1.5pt40%
- September 21+8.0pt37%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt67%
- October 31+3.0pt41%
- September 30+1.0pt23%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $65.8M
- 24h Vol
- $200.4K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.5pt91%
- September 18+7.5pt89%
- September 4+13.0pt86%
+2 more outcomes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which country will the U.S. declare war on next??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 50% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Which country will the U.S. declare war on next? resolve?
- Which country will the U.S. declare war on next? is scheduled to resolve on August 1, 2030.
- How is Which country will the U.S. declare war on next? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Not limited to formal declarations of war.