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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. China
  3. Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

One-OffChina19d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before Jul 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026 1%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$55

Liquidity

$2.4K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

0.2% / 1.2%

Spread

500.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jan 7, 26, 3:00 PMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before Jul 1, 20261%

Rules

State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
  • The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
  • A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
  • A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
  • State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Rules

State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
  • The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
  • A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
  • A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
  • State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.