KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore Jan 1, 2027 4%-3.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$253.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.5% / 7.0%
Spread
55.6%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Jan 1, 20274%
Volume trend
$2.0kJul 224d of dataJul 26
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State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
- The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
- A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
- A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
- State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.