KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2030 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2030 35.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2030 35.5%Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$373
Open interest
$152.9K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2030Spread
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Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2030
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026?
KalshiWill the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028
Manifold Marketswill the US department of state issue surveillance-related travel warnings to people who visit china by EOY2028??
Manifold MarketsWill Lucy Martinez travel to Thailand before October 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China impose a travel ban on Americans to Shenzhen for any period lasting more than 2 months before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2030 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
Settles via:the U.S. State Department
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2030
- If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2030 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2029 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2028 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2027 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.