Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleSep 25, 23, 9:08 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will citizens of the US be able to travel to more than 50% of countries without a physical passport by 2050?
Manifold MarketsAt least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031
Manifold MarketsWill the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
KalshiHow many naturalized US citizens will be denaturalized between February 1, 2025 and February 1, 2029?
Manifold Markets2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
PolymarketTaiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by which date?
PolymarketRules
For example:
- something happens around Taiwan
- US announces new options for Taiwanese citizens in the US to extend their stay
- The idea is that the US will take a pro-Taiwanese national stance re: immigration/legality/visa status of those people's presence in the US.
- It doesn't have to be a specific policy, but has to be overall beneficial and help them avoid breaking laws, or avoid having to return to a country which is at war or occupied.
- This includes changes due to military issues around Taiwan, but also to earthquakes, volcanos, etc. Since it's hard to distinguish.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-8.5pt62%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $424.6K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $286K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.8%
- September 3011.9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028 resolve?
- Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2029.
- How is Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: For example: