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Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

One-OffGeopolitics China Politics1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 87.7%

Forecasters

595

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Oct 5, 22, 1:22 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.

This question is answered "No" if there is:
no military conflict between the two parties
a limited military conflict without triggering a major war
On the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction.
Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.

Prediction Source Comparison

Also available on Polymarket — Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · No 89%

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027??: Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 9, 2026.
When does Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? resolve?: Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
How is Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
Where else is Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? listed?: The same question is also listed on Polymarket.

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