Credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for Venezuela regime change (news media 2026)
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsLatin America3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.9%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 10:45 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence show that OpenAI deliberately staged the July 2026 Hugging Face incident by January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence emerge linking Richard David Precht to Putin before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the fake news inquiry be closed in Brazil's Supreme Court by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketCuban regime falls in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Will there be credible evidence that the US actions in Venezuela were pre-arranged with local supporters (political, intelligence, military etc.).
- That the US were planning this together with Venezuelan groups, institutions and power bases.
- My inspiration for this (warning > disreputable gore site):
- It's incredible how low the helicopters fly.
- They really don't expect any resistance:
- America have started attacking Venezuela/Caracas | 03 Jan (20m ago) - WPD
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for Venezuela regime change (news media 2026)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for Venezuela regime change (news media 2026) resolve?
- Credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for Venezuela regime change (news media 2026) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for Venezuela regime change (news media 2026) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will there be credible evidence that the US actions in Venezuela were pre-arranged with local supporters (political, intelligence, military etc.).