Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?
AIOne-Off2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.8%
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 24, 26, 1:08 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Inspired by this tweet: https://x.com/loffredojeremy/status/2057911236361179575?s=46
- By December 31, 2026, will credible public evidence show that OpenAI, or a contractor/vendor acting on OpenAI’s behalf, paid at least 100 households or families in New York City to install indoor 360-degree cameras in private homes to record routine household activities such as cooking, cleaning, washing dishes, or similar domestic tasks, for use in AI, robotics, smart-home, or hardware development?
- Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if, by market close, credible public evidence establishes all of the following:
- OpenAI involvement: OpenAI directly ran, funded, commissioned, or materially directed the program; or a contractor/vendor did so on OpenAI’s behalf.
- NYC households: The program involved at least 100 private households/families located in New York City.