PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored reference
No 99%
No 99%Market quality
85 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$17.7K
Liquidity
$161.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
0
7d Change
-0.4 pts
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 11:54 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Market depth · No
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
PolymarketIf the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.