If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Middle EastGeopoliticsUS Politics6moManifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastYes 7.5%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 days ago
StaleFeb 17, 26, 10:57 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes8%
Related Markets
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
$314.5Yes: 12%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the US suffer 1000 confirmed combat deaths in Iran in 2026?
$250Yes: 8.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIf the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
$141.3Yes: 7.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
$1.4MJuly 31: 68%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
$135.7KDecember 31: 48%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
$119.7KSwitzerland: 31%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.News
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
Colorado Dem upset jolts 2028 chatter as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.5%Blockchain.News
Iran-Oman Hormuz transit fee talks hit odds: Polymarket sees 85.5% NoBlockchain.News
Colorado primary surprise as Polymarket keeps Maduro favored at 80%Blockchain.News
Iran signals talks stalled, Polymarket odds fall to 14.5% on Hormuz normalcyBlockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.