Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast6 - 100 69%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 23, 26, 6:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:25 PM UTC
Trends
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUkraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by which date?
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the total number of American citizens and military personnel killed by Iran by the end of 2026 conditional on a US military (kinetic) strike on Iranian territory.
- The count includes deaths from Iranian military, IRGC and any units mentioned here.
- Deaths from indirect consequences (e.g., economic disruption) do not count.
- Deaths by terror attacks count only if Iran takes full responsibility.
- If no US strike on Iran occurs by the end of 2026, the market resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on reliable sources as defined by Wikipedia.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill??
- Manifold Markets prices 6 - 100 at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill? resolve?
- If the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is If the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria