Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast6 - 100 75%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 23, 26, 6:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:25 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the total number of American citizens and military personnel killed by Iran by the end of 2026 conditional on a US military (kinetic) strike on Iranian territory.
- The count includes deaths from Iranian military, IRGC and any units mentioned here.
- Deaths from indirect consequences (e.g., economic disruption) do not count.
- Deaths by terror attacks count only if Iran takes full responsibility.
- If no US strike on Iran occurs by the end of 2026, the market resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on reliable sources as defined by Wikipedia.
