Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 31, 2026, 11:48 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast>3 months 81.3%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+4.2 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 22, 25, 6:14 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
On June 21, 2025, the United States completed air strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
- While the US claims the sites were completely destroyed, Iran claims impact was minimal.
- This question asks: how many more months away from a nuclear weapon is the Islamic Republic?
- This question will resolve using estimates produced by international governing bodies, such as the IAEA.
- These estimates may not be available soon, and the question will extend until a firm estimate is produced by an international agency.