If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
One-OffMiddle EastGeopolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.5%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 15, 26, 3:13 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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MyriadRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
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- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
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- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
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- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
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- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026? resolve?
- If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.