Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.9%
Forecasters
98
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 3:16 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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LimitlessRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown or ceases to exist as the governing authority of Iran by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires a change in the fundamental structure of state power—either through popular uprising, military coup, or other means—resulting in the end of clerical rule under the current system.
- The market resolves NO if the Islamic Republic remains the de facto governing authority at year-end, regardless of internal instability, leadership changes within the system, or concessions made to protesters.
- Mass demonstrations erupted across Iran beginning December 28, 2025, initially sparked by frustration over skyrocketing inflation, rising food prices, and severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, but quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic Republic's rule.
- The country's rial currency lost nearly half its value against the dollar in 2025, with inflation standing at about 50 percent in December.
