PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 9%
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.8K
Liquidity
$81.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 9.0%
Spread
12.5%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 19, 26, 8:34 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes9%
Volume trend
$3.8kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.