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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

1.0% (24h)One-OffRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 12%+0.0%
Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$348.6

Liquidity

$33.8K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

11.0% / 12.0%

Spread

9.1%

Wide spread
7d Change

-1.0%

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Jan 19, 26, 8:35 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes12%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
  • The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
  • The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.