Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:17 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 94.5%
No 94.5%Forecasters
86
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleFeb 5, 24, 11:43 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Will Russia invade any NATO member country before 31 December 2026?
- • This question asks participants to predict whether there will be any military action by Russia that constitutes an invasion of a NATO member country’s sovereign territory before the end of 31 December 2026.
- • For the purposes of this market, an “invasion” is defined as the unauthorized entry of Russian military forces into the sovereign territory of a NATO member country that is publicly acknowledged by NATO as an act of aggression.
- • Verification of an invasion can be based on official statements from NATO, the government of the member country involved, or the Russian government.
- • Incidents that are ambiguous or not officially recognized as an invasion by NATO or the member country’s government will not count towards the resolution of this market.
- • This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such invasion occurs before the specified date, and “No” otherwise.