Who wins the US presidential election in 2024? / Will Russia invade a NATO member before 2030?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineElectionUS PoliticsEurope3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastTrump / Russia does not invade 80.8%Leader of 4 outcomes
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71
Question type
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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0.0 pts
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Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 17, 23, 11:08 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
Political commentators have repeatedly suggested that if Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, he would make the US military not help if Russia were to invade a NATO member.
- Will that occur?
- Resolves to either Trump/Not Trump for the 2024 presidential election winner, based on who is inaugurated in January 2025.
- Resolves based on Russia seriously invading a NATO member.
- This should be at least on the scale of the 2014 Crimean war, not just a missile accidentally being shot or one plane passing over borders.
- Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Invasion Scale Clarification:
