Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffEurope3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.6%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 26, 8:25 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the United States takes military action against any other member of NATO before the 1st of January 2027, otherwise resolves NO.
- Military action includes but is not limited to:
- remote attack by missile or drone.
- Deploying ground troops to the other nation’s soil in contravention of the wishes of that nation.
- Covert operations that are acknowledged by the US or strongly evidenced by the other nation.
- Anything noted by both sides as a training exercise will not cause this market to resolve YES.
