Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffEurope3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.9%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 26, 8:25 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?
Manifold MarketsSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketIsrael military action against Lebanon on?
PolymarketIsrael military action against Beirut by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the United States takes military action against any other member of NATO before the 1st of January 2027, otherwise resolves NO.
- Military action includes but is not limited to:
- remote attack by missile or drone.
- Deploying ground troops to the other nation’s soil in contravention of the wishes of that nation.
- Covert operations that are acknowledged by the US or strongly evidenced by the other nation.
- Anything noted by both sides as a training exercise will not cause this market to resolve YES.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026? resolve?
- Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the United States takes military action against any other member of NATO before the 1st of January 2027, otherwise resolves NO.