Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?
Trade PolicyOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsLatin AmericaUS PoliticsPolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.5%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJun 16, 26, 3:00 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsIsrael military action against Lebanon on?
PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketHow many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
PolymarketWill Donald Trump annex Greenland into the US before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel annex at least 15% of Syria by 2029?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, the United States under the presidential administration of Donald Trump officially annexes any portion of Brazilian territory or conducts unauthorized military action against or within Brazil.
- Specifically:
- Annexation is defined as the United States officially claiming sovereignty, annexing, or establishing a formal protectorate over any portion of Brazil's internationally recognized territory, codified by a U.S. executive order, presidential proclamation, federal law, or treaty signed by Donald Trump.
- Military Action is defined as a kinetic military operation (including but not limited to airstrikes, drone strikes, missile launches, naval blockades, or ground troop incursions) conducted by the United States Armed Forces within Brazil’s internationally recognized land borders, territorial waters, or airspace.
- To qualify, the military action must be directed against targets (including state forces, infrastructure, or local non-state actors/gangs) without the explicit consent or written invitation of the internationally recognized federal government of Brazil.
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 3155%
- October 31+0.5pt30.6%
- September 30+5.0pt14.4%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $124.2K
- 24h Vol
- $7.8K
KALSHISouth Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
- Above 2.2 million TEUs94%
- Above 2.3 million TEUs84%
- Above 2.4 million TEUs56%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16K
- 24h Vol
- $5.5K
KALSHIWhat will John Ternus say during his Apple Keynote?
- Fold / Folding / Foldable+4.0pt88%
- Ultra+5.0pt87%
- Apple Intelligence83%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.6K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Canadian aircraft+10.0pt34%
- Wind turbines23%
- Critical minerals-29.0pt11%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes-7.0pt70%
- No30%
- Total Vol
- $2.1K
- 24h Vol
- $794
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- What will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028? resolve?
- Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria