Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?
Trade PolicyOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsLatin AmericaUS PoliticsPolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.1%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 39 minutes ago
Jun 16, 26, 3:00 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, the United States under the presidential administration of Donald Trump officially annexes any portion of Brazilian territory or conducts unauthorized military action against or within Brazil.
- Specifically:
- Annexation is defined as the United States officially claiming sovereignty, annexing, or establishing a formal protectorate over any portion of Brazil's internationally recognized territory, codified by a U.S. executive order, presidential proclamation, federal law, or treaty signed by Donald Trump.
- Military Action is defined as a kinetic military operation (including but not limited to airstrikes, drone strikes, missile launches, naval blockades, or ground troop incursions) conducted by the United States Armed Forces within Brazil’s internationally recognized land borders, territorial waters, or airspace.
- To qualify, the military action must be directed against targets (including state forces, infrastructure, or local non-state actors/gangs) without the explicit consent or written invitation of the internationally recognized federal government of Brazil.
