KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2027 4%
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$553.8
Liquidity
$1.1M
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 5.4%
Spread
1.4 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Dec 11, 25, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
KalshiTariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
PolymarketWill the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) of small of small photovoltaics be repealed in Germany in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump tariff Canada 100%
Manifold MarketsRules
If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Wall Street JournalCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCThe GuardianSouth China Morning PostCBCABCBBCThe Washington PostThe VergeABC News Australia
- Clarification (12/18/25): For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
- A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
- The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
- For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
- If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.3K
- 24h Vol
- $10.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt28%
- October 31+0.5pt13%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+13.0pt91%
- No9%
- Total Vol
- $7.1K
- 24h Vol
- $5K
KALSHIWhat will Kroger say during their next earnings call?
- Dividend+2.0pt93%
- Giant Eagle+11.0pt92%
- AI85%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHITraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Above 175-1.0pt90%
- Above 20047%
- Above 2259%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7K
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Trump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks??
- Kalshi prices Before 2027 at 4% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? resolve?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.