KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore 2027 7%+0.2%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.9K
Liquidity
$1.2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.2% / 7.3%
Spread
1.4%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Dec 11, 25, 10:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before 20277%
Large trades
$9.9k99.4%KALSHIBefore August — No14d ago
KALSHIBefore August — No14d ago$2.1k98.7%KALSHIBefore August — No21d ago
KALSHIBefore August — No21d agoVolume trend
$5.9kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
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Will Trump’s 50% tariffs on Canada take effect August 19?
$4.8Yes: 35%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification (12/18/25): For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
- A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
- The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
- For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
- If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.