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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

One-OffTrade PolicyPoliticsUS Politics6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before 2027
Before 2027 11%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$48.2

Liquidity

$9.7K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

10.0% / 11.0%

Spread

10.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Dec 11, 25, 10:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Before May
Before May
0%
Before June
Before June
0%

Selected outcome

Before 202711%

Rules

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,617.26+2.38%EthereumETH$1,651.11+1.72%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.42%

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Rules

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.