U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
0.5 pts (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsChina3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
<5% 21%+0.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$520.2
Liquidity
$26.6K
High liquiditySpread
22.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
1
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 8:05 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
- Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify.
- Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.