What will the tariff rate on Mexican imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
Trade PolicyOne-OffChinaLatin AmericaEurope2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
10% or above · —
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Stored price
20% or above 31%Market line of 3 lines
20% or above 31%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$48.7
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
10% or aboveSpread
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Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 5:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · 10% or above
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from Mexico into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Fox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street Journalthe United States CongressSemaforABCThe InformationCBSThe Washington PostAxiosCNNReutersthe Associated PressPoliticoThe New York Timesthe President of the United StatesWhite HouseBloomberg NewsNBC
- The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect. Examples (for date = Jan 1, 2026): India: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50% China: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20% European Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326) Falkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)
Rules for each outcome
- 10% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from Mexico into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 20% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from Mexico into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 30% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from Mexico into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 30%, then the market resolves to Yes.