KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
10% or above 73.3%Leader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$25.9
Low liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 5:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiWhat will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiWhat will the tariff rate on Brazilian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiWill India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWill Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from India into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Fox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street Journalthe United States CongressSemaforABCThe InformationCBSThe Washington PostAxiosCNNReutersthe Associated PressPoliticoThe New York Timesthe President of the United States
- The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date.
- This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country.
- Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify.
- The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions.
- If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.
Open markets
Trade PolicyKALSHIWill Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Before 2027-0.9pt5%
- Before August0%
- Total Vol
- $2.4M
- 24h Vol
- $24.6K
KALSHIWhen will Trump raise tariffs on Canada?
- Before Jan 1, 202762%
- Before Dec 1, 202658%
- Before Nov 1, 202658%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.1K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt27%
- October 3112%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Trump lower tariffs on Canada?
- Before Dec 1, 202659%
- Before Jan 1, 202755%
- Before Nov 1, 202652%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.5K
- 24h Vol
- $5.5K
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 3157.5%
- October 31-2.0pt29.2%
- September 3013.3%
+1 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the EU adopt a ban on Israeli settlement goods?
- No85%
- Yes15%
- Total Vol
- $3.4K
- 24h Vol
- $3.4K
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- Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
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- When will Canada raise tariffs on the US?
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Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will the tariff rate on Indian imports be on Jan 1, 2027??
- Kalshi prices 10% or above at 73% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does What will the tariff rate on Indian imports be on Jan 1, 2027? resolve?
- What will the tariff rate on Indian imports be on Jan 1, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is What will the tariff rate on Indian imports be on Jan 1, 2027? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the general import tariff rate on imports from India into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.