US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?
6.5 pts (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffGeopolitics10d
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Data as of Aug 21, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Yes 61%+6.5pt
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$589.7
Low liquidityBid / Ask
58.0% / 64.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
2
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 8:24 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Canada to lower US tariffs on Canada is announced by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- A diplomatic agreement to lower US tariffs on Canada refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that commits or obligates the United States to lower any tariffs on Canada, or includes the lowering of US tariffs on Canada as part of its stated terms.
- Any reduction, revocation, or suspension of US tariffs on Canada, or the cancelled or suspended implementation of previously announced tariffs not yet effective, mutually announced as part of a diplomatic agreement, will qualify as lowering tariffs.
- All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement.
- A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement.
- Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.
