KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement 69%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$77.1
Liquidity
$10.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 4:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- If the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
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+16 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
- $420.2K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
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+15 more outcomes
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KALSHINew Mexico St. vs Hawai'i
- Hawai'i-1.0pt71.8%
- New Mexico St.+5.0pt28.2%
- Total Vol
- $32.4K
- 24h Vol
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- Augusto Cury-7.1pt45.5%
- Renan Santos+13.0pt43.4%
- Ronaldo Caiado-3.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
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- LCK (South Korea)+0.5pt66%
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- LEC (Europe / EMEA)-0.1pt5.8%
+3 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026??
- Kalshi prices U.S.–Mexico interim agreement at 69% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026? resolve?
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.