KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityTrilateral revised deal 27%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2
Liquidity
$519
Low liquidityBid / Ask
27.0% / 33.0%
Spread
22.2%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 4:30 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Trilateral revised deal27%
Volume trend
$2Jul 234d of dataJul 26
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If the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- If the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.