KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement · —
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Stored price
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement 36%Leader of 8 outcomes
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement 36%Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$12.2K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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U.S.–Mexico interim agreementSpread
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Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingJul 23, 26, 4:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
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Rules
If the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Rules for each outcome
- U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
- If the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U.S.–Canada interim agreement
- If the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trilateral revised deal
- If the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U.S. withdrawal notice
- If the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal 16-year extension
- If the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal USMCA amendment
- If an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Canadian withdrawal notice
- If Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mexican withdrawal notice
- If Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
