KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:12 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Above $80 billion · —
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Stored price
Above $300 billion 34%Market line of 7 lines
Above $300 billion 34%Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$4.7K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above $80 billionSpread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 13, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJun 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above $80 billion
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?
KalshiUS effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
KalshiWill Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
KalshiTrump announces Canada tariff increase by which date?
PolymarketTrump announces Canada tariff decrease by which date?
PolymarketWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
KalshiRules
If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $300 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
- If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b).
Rules for each outcome
- Above $80 billion
- If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $80 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $100 billion
- If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $100 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $125 billion
- If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $125 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $150 billion
- If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $200 billion
- If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $200 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $250 billion
- If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $250 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $300 billion
- If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $300 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.