KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above $80 billion 98%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.5K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Feb 13, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJun 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWill Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
KalshiWhen will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
KalshiTariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
PolymarketWill the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) of small of small photovoltaics be repealed in Germany in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If US tariff revenue for 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
- If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b).
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.7K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+27.0pt94%
- No6%
- Total Vol
- $6.6K
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
KALSHIHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- $0 / No Acquisition83.2%
- $10 billion to $99 billion5%
- $300 billion to $599 billion4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 31+1.0pt56%
- September 30-14.0pt9%
- September 15-0.8pt1%
+1 more outcomes
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US tariff revenue for 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above $80 billion at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does US tariff revenue for 2026 resolve?
- US tariff revenue for 2026 is scheduled to resolve on June 1, 2027.
- How is US tariff revenue for 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If US tariff revenue for 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.