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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Trade Policy
  3. US tariff revenue for 2026
US tariff revenue for 2026

US tariff revenue for 2026

One-OffTrade Policy11mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Above $80‎ billion
Above $80‎ billion 89%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$36.8

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

90.0% / 98.0%

Spread

8.9%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Feb 13, 26, 3:00 PMJun 1, 27, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Above $80‎ billion89%

Rules

If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $80‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b).
  • If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $100‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $125‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $150‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $200‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,725.86+1.68%EthereumETH$1,655.01+0.92%SolanaSOL$65.02+0.78%

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Active in these topics

DogecoinDOGE$0.0848+0.72%XRPXRP$1.12-0.18%BNBBNB$597.89+1.55%CardanoADA$0.1668+3.29%HyperliquidHYPE$55.61-0.09%LitecoinLTC$42.55-0.09%

Rules

If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $80‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b).
  • If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $100‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $125‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $150‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $200‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.