KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 56%
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9.3
Liquidity
$4.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
36.0% / 45.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 1:07 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
If the U.S. Court of International Trade issues a written ruling that holds unlawful, vacates, sets aside, or enjoins collection of the 10%–12.5% Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, in whole or in part, as to any party in any case challenging the Section 301 forced-labor tariffs imposed effective July 24, 2026, including Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v.
Settles via:U.S. Court of International Trade
- United States and New York v.
- United States, No. 26-03467, or any consolidation or recaptioning thereof before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The ruling must: Be issued by the U.S. Court of International Trade in any case challenging the Section 301 forced-labor tariffs imposed effective July 24, 2026, including Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v.
- United States, No. 26-03467, or any consolidation or recaptioning thereof Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision
- The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders Orders to show cause Minute orders that do not address the substantive issue in the specified judgment
Open markets
Trade Policy
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31-8.5pt46%
- October 31-5.5pt32%
- September 30-10.5pt12%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.4M
- 24h Vol
- $35.1K
KALSHIWhat will Ulta say during their next earnings call?
- Uncertainty+4.0pt90%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence86%
- Luxury80%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.8K
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?
- Yes+5.0pt60%
- No-5.0pt40%
- Total Vol
- $7.2K
- 24h Vol
- $1.7K
POLYMARKETUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Yes92%
- No8%
- Total Vol
- $223.4K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- $0 / No Acquisition86.6%
- $600 billion to $899 billion-1.2pt3.1%
- $1 billion to $9 billion3.1%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
POLYMARKETWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- No-6.5pt71%
- Yes+6.5pt29%
- Total Vol
- $16.5K
- 24h Vol
- $921.4
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
- Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Aug 2026?
- Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
- Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
- US trade deficit for 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 56% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026? resolve?
- Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. Court of International Trade issues a written ruling that holds unlawful, vacates, sets aside, or enjoins collection of the 10%–12.5% Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, in whole or in part, as to any party in any case challenging the Section 301 forced-labor tariffs imposed effective July 24, 2026, including Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v.