KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 3:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
19.0% / 28.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
0%
Rules
If the United States has in effect tariffs of 50% on Canadian cars, trucks, automotive parts and steel after Issuance and before Jan 2, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBCThe VergeFederal Register
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- Tariffs are in effect when a presidential proclamation, executive order or Federal Register notice is legally in force and being applied to imports.
- An announcement, including a social media post, and an order signed but not yet effective, do NOT count The tariff must be in force at 50% on ALL of cars, trucks, automotive parts and steel.
Open markets
Trade PolicyKALSHISouth Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
- Above 2.2 million TEUs94%
- Above 2.3 million TEUs84%
- Above 2.4 million TEUs56%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16K
- 24h Vol
- $5.5K
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 3156.5%
- October 3130.6%
- September 30+3.0pt13%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Canadian aircraft+11.0pt35%
- Wind turbines23%
- Critical minerals-29.0pt11%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.3K
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes-5.0pt72%
- No28%
- Total Vol
- $2.1K
- 24h Vol
- $791
POLYMARKETWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- No+4.0pt77%
- Yes-4.0pt23%
- Total Vol
- $20.7K
- 24h Vol
- $646.7
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Will Trump formalize a 100% tariff on generic drugs before the midterms?
- Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect??
- Kalshi prices No at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect? resolve?
- 50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is 50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States has in effect tariffs of 50% on Canadian cars, trucks, automotive parts and steel after Issuance and before Jan 2, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.