Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
1.5% (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffUS Politics5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 12%+0.0%
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$1.3K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 15.0%
Spread
66.7%
Wide spread7d Change
-3.5%
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 7:26 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes12%
Volume trend
$795Jul 53d of dataJul 7
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
- A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.