Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
1.0 pts (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffUS Politics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 91.1%+1.0pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$9.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 10.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 7:26 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
- A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.