Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?
3.0 pts (24h)BitcoinOne-OffAdoptionUS PoliticsExchangeForeign Exchange3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 91%
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$13
Liquidity
$58K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.4% / 9.4%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Dec 23, 25, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If Donald Trump has issued an executive order or his Administration takes an executive action (including signing a bill into law) creating a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” “National Bitcoin Reserve,” or any other formal government-held stockpile of Bitcoin after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For example, if the U.S. government established a program or body that is equivalent to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for Bitcoin, or the United States Bullion Depository for Bitcoin, or if Bitcoin was held in the reserves of the U.S. Department of the Treasury like its foreign exchange and SDR holdings, then the Payout Criterion would be fulfilled.
- This would not include merely Bitcoin confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings.