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  3. What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold Markets

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

baseTrade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsAIGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026 15%
Leader of 18 outcomes
Forecasters

101

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale
Nov 9, 25, 9:23 PMJan 22, 29, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 202615%

Rules

[image](Forbes article about his post)

Manifold Markets
  • Will it happen? If it does what will be true?
  • For ease of common parlance, "stimulus check" in this market is referring to the "dividends" of his post.
  • If this becomes a completely unsustainable metaphor, some answers may need to resolve or be rewritten.
  • Will resolve to best reporting, at latest by the end of his time in office or within a few months after the checks go out to let news stories shake loose.
  • If the check doesn't materialize before he leaves office, answers that are able to will resolve to YES or NO rather than N/A.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,612.98+1.75%EthereumETH$1,652.45+1.40%SolanaSOL$65.11+0.90%

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Active in these topics

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Rules

[image](Forbes article about his post)

Manifold Markets
  • Will it happen? If it does what will be true?
  • For ease of common parlance, "stimulus check" in this market is referring to the "dividends" of his post.
  • If this becomes a completely unsustainable metaphor, some answers may need to resolve or be rewritten.
  • Will resolve to best reporting, at latest by the end of his time in office or within a few months after the checks go out to let news stories shake loose.
  • If the check doesn't materialize before he leaves office, answers that are able to will resolve to YES or NO rather than N/A.