What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
BaseTrade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsAIGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAny American receives it by end 2025 100%Leader of 18 outcomes
Forecasters
103
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleNov 9, 25, 9:23 PM UTCJan 22, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
[image](Forbes article about his post)
- Will it happen? If it does what will be true?
- For ease of common parlance, "stimulus check" in this market is referring to the "dividends" of his post.
- If this becomes a completely unsustainable metaphor, some answers may need to resolve or be rewritten.
- Will resolve to best reporting, at latest by the end of his time in office or within a few months after the checks go out to let news stories shake loose.
- If the check doesn't materialize before he leaves office, answers that are able to will resolve to YES or NO rather than N/A. (If that happens, I hope it's clear that most would resolve NO, but I imagine "All for the same amount" probably has to resolve N/A since it can be easily read as YES and NO if there are no checks)