Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Mauritius 46.9%Leader of 8 outcomes
Mauritius 46.9%Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 7, 25, 9:41 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
The Chagos Islands (also called the Chagos Archipelago) are a group of islands in the Indian Ocean, the largest of which is Diego Garcia.
- The islands are currently controlled by the the named outcome as part of the British Indian Ocean Territory, but have been claimed by Mauritius since it gained independence from Britain in 1968; this claim has been supported by various international courts and organisations, including the ICJ.
- Diego Garcia is home to Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia, a British base leased to the the named outcome.
- In 2024, Britain announced a deal to transfer sovereignty of the islands the Mauritius; the deal proved controversial for various reasons, and there is speculation that the the named outcome under Donald Trump will veto it.
- This market will resolve to the country or countries that the islands officially belong to on 31 December 2049; if different islands are controlled by different countries, the market will resolve evenly to them (except for "the named outcome", which will resolve NO unless it is the case for all the islands).
- What matters is who officially owns the islands, not who has claims on it or leases any land on them.