Current community forecast
OpenAI 75.5%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+27.8 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 8, 26, 7:16 PM UTCDec 31, 00, 8:12 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
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KalshiRules
Core Resolution Criteria
- Primary Attribution Rule
- The market resolves to the organization that developed the AI system that is most causally responsible for the extinction event.
- Successor / Self-Improvement Clause
- If the decisive system is:
- autonomously derived,
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI??
- Manifold Markets prices OpenAI at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? resolve?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2100.
- How is If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Core Resolution Criteria