Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 1:58 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
OpenAI 75.5%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 7:16 PM UTCDec 31, 00, 8:12 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same day?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsRules
Core Resolution Criteria
- Primary Attribution Rule
- The market resolves to the organization that developed the AI system that is most causally responsible for the extinction event.
- Successor / Self-Improvement Clause
- If the decisive system is:
- autonomously derived,
